How much has the Affordable Care Act reduced potential GDP?

The Affordable Care Act added "about half-dozen per centum points to the marginal taxation charge per unit of measurement faced, on average, past times workers inwards the economy."  So estimates the University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan. 

Given that project income was already taxed past times income together with payroll taxes, that figure indicates the render to working vicious past times virtually 10 percent. If nosotros apply a plausible aggregate project render elasticity of 0.5, this inwards plow suggests a decline inwards project render of virtually five percent. In the long run, equally the working capital missive of the alphabet stock adjusts, a autumn inwards project render leads to a proportionate autumn inwards output. So nosotros destination upward alongside a five percent autumn inwards long-run potential output.

That calculation is very, really rough, but it does dot that the ACA could good live a significant reason why the economic scheme is non returning to its former increase path.

Update: Casey emails me that he believes the gross domestic product outcome volition live smaller than this (about ii percent or a fleck more) because the touching on less skilled workers is greater than that on to a greater extent than skilled workers.  As a result, the mix of skills volition change, together with gross domestic product volition autumn past times less than full hours worked.
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